The Red Sea Crisis: What is going on?

Royal Navy Destroyer HMS Diamond opens fire on an incoming Houthi projectile, Jan 2024.

On October 7th 2023, Hamas attacked Israel in a violent assualt. Previous tensions that were building up spilled over and a major war broke out, now known as the 2023-24 Israel-Hamas War. This conflict, which is still ongoing, shattered the relatively peaceful status quo that had been maintained throughout the early half of the 2020s.

On the 19th October 2023, the Irainian backed terrorist group the Houthi Movement, also known as Ansar Allah, launched multiple missiles towards Israel. Large amounts of these missiles were shot down by the US Navy Arleigh-Burke class destroyer, USS Carney, in an unprecedented move. The group then expanded their operations significantly, with a massive campaign of targeting Western Warships and other merchant shipping, as seen with the successful hijacking of the MV Galaxy Leader in November 2023.

So you may ask yourself, why are the Houthi movement attacking merchant shipping and Western military vessels. Firstly, we must breakdown the overall strategic tensions in the region. The major players in the region are for sure, Iran and the US. They each seek to dominate the region geopolitically. The Iranian state, which suprisingly used to be one of the US' largest allies until the 1979 Islamic revolution, seeks to assert dominance by coercing its neighbours through funding insurgent groups, such as the Houthis, or in Israel Hamas, or in Lebanon, Hezbollah. Iran's foreign policy doctrine of using 3rd party groups to do the "dirty work" of the Khamenini regime has been taking place for a sizeable amount of time, and a growth in the aggressiveness of Iran's foreign policy can be noticed already.

On the flip side, the United States rose out of the Cold war in 1991 as the Global Superpower in a Unipolar world, and has to an extent maintained that hegemony ever since, albiet weakened at points. The United States maintains a large presence in the Middle East, which is commanded via United States Central Command (CENTCOM) based in Florida. The United states immediatley deployed the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower as an immediate response to the outbreak of conflict in the Red Sea, and for good reason. The Red Sea is home to the Bab El Mandeb straits. (Indicated by the black dot in the Image below.

The Bab El Mandeb is one of the major chokepoints for International Maritime trade. It is between 16 and 31 miles wide, and funnels all International shipping that wishes to transit the Suez Canal, further north in Egypt into this chokepoint. The alternative? On average, a transit through the Suez canal saves a 12,000km 2 week + journey round the Cape of Good Hope and through the Atlantic. Therefore, global markets that trade between the West and countries such as China, Bangladesh, India, and many of the OPEC nations in the Middle East rely on this chokepoint for the maintenance of International Trade. For example, in 2018, over 6 million barrels of oil transited the straight per day, clearly highlighting its importance.

So, its obvious that the Houthis present a clear threat to Maritime Security in the region. What has been done about this? Well, as mentioned earlier, the United States has not held back in terms of its response. The US, which relies on the strait just as much as Europe, has deployed a large carrier force to relieve the initial US Navy units on station in the Middle East, which comprised of the Eisenhower (Ike) Carrier Strike Group, as well as the deployed of a US Marine Expeditionary Unit. The US Air Force did not dissapoint and US officials confirmed that additional F-16 and F-15 squadrons had been deployed out into the CENTCOM area of operations. The United States is not alone in this fight against the Houthis, and formed a coalition of nations, under the name Operation Prosperity Guardian, to combat the Houthi threat, which includes the UK, Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, New Zealand, as well as many other International Partners. An interesting side note would be to examine the role of the Indian Navy, which has, although not joined Operation Prosperity Guardian, played a key role in the fight against the attacks by conducting hostage rescue of Indian crews, many of which make up a large proportion of the merchant seaman that have been operating the merchant vessels transiting the strait.

The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower on operations in the Red Sea, 2023-2024.

The International Coalition spent a large amount of time shooting down the attacks from October-December 2023, however from 2024, the stance of the Coalition took a more offensive position. On the night of 12th Janurary 2024, the US and UK conducted joint airstrikes to combat the Houthi threat, targeting launchers, barracks and airfields. This clearly demonstrates a more offensive position by the coalition, and could be linked to a few reasons. One, the impact of the Houthi attacks on International shipping in the Bab El Mandeb have raised Maritime Insurance prices, increasing the price of International shipping, which puts consumer costs up. This is a clear reason as to why the US-backed coalition decided to intervene. These air strikes have been mostly a success, and Houthi attacks are down as of June 2024, but still present, which is affecting the flow of International shipping through the Bab-El-Mandeb.

Another reason as to why the United States and its allies have intervened is likely due to the clear violation of International Law by the Houthis in their actions. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea clearly sets out the rules in International Law as to what can and what cannot take place. Therefore, an international response has been warranted, and the United Nations Security Council passed resolution 2722, condemning the terrorism of the Houthi movement, on the 10th Janurary 2024.

There are concerns that the Red Sea Crisis will spark a humanitarian crisis in Yemen, which is a nation already rocked and troubled by war. The Civil war, which was sparked in late 2014 between different groups and the government, created a humanitarian catastrophe, which was not helped by the Saudi-led intervention that took place from 2015 onwards. The current crisis hasn't massively impacted the flow of refugees from Yemen, as the Coalition strikes have been limited, and strictly kept to military targets in order to keep civilian casualties low.

Overall, the Red Sea Crisis has been troublesome for Western foreign policy, and has caused a headache for the United States and its allies. However, great strengths and patterns of power have been displayed by the US and its allies, including the UK. The UK has been able to combat-prove the Sea Viper Missile system in a high intensity threat environment. The crisis has no sign of ending for now, and whilst the Houthis have been degraded quite seriously, the Israel-Hamas war (the catalyst for the whole crisis) rages on into its 7th month and the Houthis still exist as a threat. If a cease-fire is agreed between the two warring parties, Western foreign policymakers must jump at the opportunity to end the threat to International shipping once and for all.